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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and longtime strugglers improving collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still