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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd